| Author | Lalita Hanwong |
|---|
“Myawaddy” this name has been floating around in the news for several months. Both in terms of fighting between various forces to seize the most important border town on this Thai-Myanmar border. to the matter of dozens of casinos and scam centers along the Moei River and human rights assistance that the Thai government has begun to focus on and the first phase has begun in three cities in Myawaddy Province since March 25.
Not long before Songkran Much of Myawaddy is still controlled by the SAC, Burma’s junta government. But after that, opposition forces worked together to successfully seize Myawaddy. A symbol of the complete capture of this strategic city. was to seize the base of Battalion 275 of the Burmese Army, or Phasong Base, the last base closest to Myawaddy. The joint force’s operations were made possible by the presence of key Karen armed groups. gathered together to attack the Burmese soldiers Even the BGF (now rebranded as the KNA or Karen National Army) under the leadership of So Chit Tu and
Tin Win, who had given allegiance and sent protection money to SAC in the past, also joined in this operation. together with opposition forces in Karen State led by the KNLA (army wing of the KNU), arguing that all Karen forces have a common goal to expel Burmese forces from Myawaddy and Karen State first.
Chittu and Tinwin’s names are not new. But we are probably very familiar with it. Because the Karen BGF is the protector of the huge casinos and scam centers in Myawaddy District. Especially Shwegokko, which Chittu controlled. and Tin Win’s KK Park When news first came out that a joint Karen force had attacked an important Burmese base in Myawaddy. The author views that the opportunity for all these Karen forces to come together is just a special operation.
In the past, the framework for analyzing the dynamics of various factions in the Karen State was usually Good Karens, Bad Karens, with the BGF being the bad side with illegal businesses and many benefits at hand, while the KNU/KNLA were right. Considered to be Good Karens because they have come out and announced that they are not involved in illegal business. But this assumption is not true. Because as long as war requires money and soldiers Some groups, even within the KNLA, need a source of income to sustain their forces. Let’s not forget that we are no longer in the Cold War era where superpowers controlled various forces.
In recent days, news reports have surfaced that BGF helped Burmese soldiers return to Phasong Camp and bring the Burmese flag back up to the top. After there was a picture of the Karen forces raising the Karen national flag. This land grab and flag politics are especially important at this time. The raising of the Karen flag over Myawaddy is an unprecedented phenomenon in contemporary Burmese political history. Many decades ago The Karen used to have a main base at Manerplaw, opposite Tha Song Yang District, Tak Province, but it was conquered by the Burmese in 1995, when SLORC ruled Burma. It is said that the cause of Manerplaw broke up. It came from the split between the Karen leaders. And since then the Myanmar flag has always flown over every area of Karen State.
Several weeks have passed. The fighting on the Myawaddy side shows no signs of ending. Why did Burma not surrender in the Battle of Myawaddy? And why is this situation ready to change at any time?
The BGF is a very important factor in Myawaddy because the BGF leaders, Chit Thu and Tin Win, will absolutely not allow the SAC to use their planes to bomb the treasure troves at Shwe Kok Ko, KK Park, and the casinos along the Moei River. Because this is the breathing and survival of BGF, not just the leaders. But this area provides food for the BGF’s more than 14,000 soldiers, so the BGF must use all of its negotiation skills to prevent the SAC from bombing operations near the BGF’s complex. What will the BGF do to negotiate and keep the area under its control? Can you keep yours?
In the near future, we may see the BGF reunite with SAC or declare itself neutral, not taking sides with both SAC and the Karen coalition forces. continue to maintain their own area of interest, but if BGF truly chooses this path The author thinks the BGF will be more difficult to survive in what Igor Blazevic considers to be the most important battleground since the coup. And it was a battle that would cause the Burmese army to be completely defeated.
Even though the Burmese army did everything they could to retake Myawaddy, transporting tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy weapons into Myawaddy through the Dawna Mountains in 3 ways: the Asia Road (A1), the old road, and mountain forest path But passing the Khao Don Na checkpoint to reach Myawaddy is not easy. And we have seen pictures of the opposition groups attacking Burmese armored vehicles to the point where they were unable to travel further. This pass is like the SAC’s last gasp. If they pass through, they will use violence to attack surrounding villages. To pave the way for reclaiming Myawaddy
Blasevich was of the view that even if the SAC army could break through the Dona mountain pass, But there will be heavy losses. Soldiers lose morale With few forces remaining on the other battlefields, SAC knew the easier thing would be to pick up Chittu’s phone and make him an offer he couldn’t refuse. The author agrees with Blasevich that the dynamics at Myawaddy today have changed a lot. Even though the opposition has not yet won a decisive victory. But we must admit that the momentum of this game is already leaning towards the opposition. Imagine that there is another big battle raging somewhere. Whether it is Rakhine, Kachin or Mon, which area will SAC choose to protect?
For the writer Myawaddy is a strategic area that SAC must maintain for as long as possible. Because this is the busiest trading channel. The value of beneficial trade with Burma is greater than trade with China, Bangladesh or India. The Myawaddy battle will continue for some time, but the SAC will no longer be able to control Myawaddy without any BGF presence. With or without
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