7 brokers look at OSP budget for 1Q24, expecting profit of 810-910 million baht, growth of 4-17%, thanks to soaring beverage sales.

Analysts predict OSP’s operating results for the 1st quarter of 2024, expecting a profit of 810-910 million baht, growing 4-17% after strong growth in beverage sales both domestically and internationally. Looking at the outlook for 2Q24 continuing to be good due to strong market share. Ready to increase the profit target for the whole year. The target price is estimated in the range of 34-24 baht.

Reporter for the Thai E-Finance News Agency It has gathered the views of leading Thai analysts. Regarding the operating results trend of Osotspa Public Company Limited or OSP in the 1st quarter of 2024, they all have a view in the same direction that there will be an increase in profits this quarter compared to the same period in 2023 based on beverage sales. that comes back to grow Both inside and abroad

*** Krungsri Securities expects maximum profit of 910 million baht.

Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited stated that it expects profits from its core business in 1Q24 to increase to 910 million baht from strong sales growth of 12% YoY (to 7.3 billion baht), with OSP gaining a share. Thailand’s market for energy drinks increased significantly (+2.9ppt QoQ to 45.9%), while its share of the functional drink market also increased (+0.4ppt qoq to 42.9% for C-vitt). ) which is an important reason for sales to grow up to 12% YoY in 1Q24 and when combined with increased gross profit margins, profits from core businesses grow strongly. We therefore maintain our full-year profit forecast unchanged and maintain our BUY recommendation and maintain our target price at 24 baht.

However, the beverage business is expected to grow 14% YoY (to 6 billion baht) in 1Q24, led by growth in international markets. Especially Myanmar (10% of revenue) and the functional drink market in Thailand (approximately 10% of revenue). In the Myanmar market, it is believed that OSP will gain more market share. because there is a production base there This gives an advantage over competitors who cannot easily import products from Thailand under the problematic political situation. It is expected that the personal care business (approximately 12% of revenue) will grow 5% YoY (to 583 million baht).

The research department expects the trend to continue to be good in 2Q24 due to strong market share. However, operating results may decrease QoQ due to the low season. The current full-year forecast is still in line with the company’s target.

*** Expected revenue to hit a new high in 8 quarters after domestic performance grew by double digits.

Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited stated that the profit trend for 1Q24 is better than previously expected. The new estimate is 812 million baht from revenue expected to hit a new high in the 8th quarter +12% QoQ and YoY from both domestic growth at a double-digit rate and from the energy drink side which has gained market share to 46.4% from 45.9%. In the 4th quarter of 2023, Myanmar grew more than 30% YoY from both Volume and Price sides, despite the unrest in Burma. But the income produced within the country is still very good. Meanwhile, the gross profit margin trend is expected to continue to increase to 35.7% from 35.5% in 4Q2023 and 33.4% in 1Q24, benefiting from the shutdown of unprofitable businesses and lower gas costs. We are starting to see profit estimates for 2024 from the current expected 2.62 billion baht +21% YoY.

*** Bualuang Securities sees energy drink revenue in foreign countries growing well.

Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited stated that OSP’s 1Q24 profit is expected to be 841 million baht, growing 7% YoY and 93% QoQ, with OSP’s domestic energy drink revenue expected to grow 15%YoY from an industry that has OSP’s growth and market share increased from 45.9% in 4Q2023 to 46.4% in 1Q24, which is considered better than what the research department and the market expected, while energy drink revenue in OSP’s overseas business grew 17% YoY, mainly due to growth in the Myanmar market. Even though there is danger of fighting But OSP’s energy drink factory in Myanmar still has sales growth. This is because competing brands are unable to deliver products continuously.

*** Yuanta Securities expects income in Myanmar to make a new high.

Yuanta Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. said it expects normalized profit of 831 million baht, which is a better profit level than previously estimated. which can grow every business The energy drink business has grown significantly both domestically and abroad. The current situation in Myanmar has not been affected and it is expected that revenue in Myanmar will make a new high in the 1st quarter of 2024 and will be able to increase market share continuously. The revenue from the energy drink business is expected to grow at a double-digit level in 1Q24, which will help the market relieve concerns about the growth of OSP and maintain a positive view on profits in 2024, expecting outstanding YoY growth.

Pie Securities Public Company Limited stated that it expects a net profit of 828 million baht, benefiting from gross profit margins expanding both YoY and QoQ and good overseas sales growth. Even though there is unrest in neighboring countries It expects 1Q24 revenue of 7.2 billion baht (+11%YoY, +4%QoQ) because of the benefit of domestic sales (approximately 60% of total sales) increasing to 4.2 billion baht (+12 %YoY) for personal product sales increased to 611 million baht (+10%YoY) and international beverage sales increased to 1.9 billion baht (+25%YoY) due to better sales growth in Myanmar. market Although the energy drink market in Cambodia is sluggish due to decreased purchasing power due to the economic slowdown. All three sales can be offset by OEM sales that decreased YoY.

Krungsri Patanasin Securities Public Company Limited stated that the research department has a “Positive” view on the normal profit trend for 1Q24, expected at 810 million baht, returning to the best growth in 9 quarters. The main supporting factor is from various beverage businesses. The country is expected to increase +25% YoY, +83% QoQ, especially Myanmar has outstanding growth thanks to the hot summer. Contrary to concerns about the war situation within the country, together with domestic beverage market share Energy drink 46.4%, increasing +50bps QoQ.

For the 2Q24 trend, it is expected to grow YoY from a low base and stabilize QoQ at a high level, thanks to the summer. However, the first half is expected to be better than the second half. Because the weather was hotter at the beginning of the year, while the 3rd quarter of 2024 entered the rainy season as a low season, so we still estimate normal profits in 2024 at 2.8 billion baht (+30%YoY).

*** Adjusted this year’s profit forecast by 25%.

Dao Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited stated that it expects OSP’s Q1/67 net profit to be 841 million baht (+8% YoY, +94% QoQ) and normal profit (+76% YoY, +42% QoQ). In the 1st quarter of 2024, there was a special dividend from Unicharm at 300 million baht, with profits expanding YoY from total income expanding +10% YoY from domestic beverage income and international business (IB) income expanding, along with GPM expanding. YoY from increasing production efficiency, raw material & packaging costs decreased and international business expanded.

In addition, the research department has adjusted the net profit forecast for 2024-25 by +25% and +20%, respectively, from revenue adjustments. international business, domestic beverage and GPM that are better than expected, with 2024 net profit expected at 3,204 million baht (+33% YoY) and normalized profit +47% YoY. For 2025, net profit is expected at 3,470 million baht (+8% YoY).