“Asia Plus Securities” sees SET 2nd quarter testing 1,450 points, recommends keeping 7 stocks, gradually recovering in line with the economy.

Mr. Therdsak Thaweethiratham Deputy Managing Director, Research Division Asia Plus Securities Company Limited Revealed that in the second quarter of 2024, the Thai stock market has a chance to pass its lowest point, looking at the SET in the second quarter at the level of 1,350 points, which is a time when it is appropriate to gradually buy. Or there may be a recovery back above the level of 1,450 points, with a PER value in 2024 at 16.6 times (-1SD in 10 years) and the lowest level after the Covid crisis in 2020, while in In terms of PBV, it has a value of 1.31 times (-2SD in 10 years) and estimates the SET for the whole year 2024 at a level of 1,570-1,580 points.

As for the investment strategy, SET is fluctuating around 1,350 points with an interesting valuation. It is recommended that stocks gradually recover following the economy, such as construction materials stocks. or shares in the estate Including stocks that can make a profit, listed companies have strong growth with a telling view on stocks. C. Karnchang Public Company Limited or CK, Siam City Cement Public Company Limited or SCCC, Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited or MTC, Berli Jucker Public Company Limited or BJC, Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limitedor KBANK

While the stocks with outstanding profits in 2Q2024 are: PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited or PTTGC, B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited or BGRIM

In this regard, the Thai stock market is assessed to be more attractive for investment. In terms of profits of listed companies for the 1st quarter of 2024, which has the opportunity for strong growth. along with a supportive exchange profit rate From a lower than normal profit base for the 4th quarter of 2023 along with profits from exchange rates as support After the baht weakened more than 7% during the first quarter, stocks that benefited from the weaker baht accounted for more than 40% of the market cap, as well as the world crude oil price rose more than 15% from the previous quarter, supporting the Stock Gain in Commodity stocks that have a major share in the market

It also builds confidence in the stability of the Thai stock market. Supporting this, trading volumes will gradually return after the authorities increased trading hours from 4.5 hours per day to 5 hours per day. And there are measures to supervise and inspect Short Selling, Program Trading, expected to come into effect in the second quarter of 2024, supporting SET’s Turnover to have a chance to return higher than 70% per year.

In addition, we began to see many factors helping to support the economy. Intense fiscal policy through accelerating the disbursement of the 2024 budget within just 5-6 months with a value of 3.48 trillion baht, 9.3% higher than the previous year, which forecasts Thailand’s GDP GROWTH to grow at 2.6-2.8% if the budget can be disbursed. Can be paid before May 2024 and must have an investment budget of at least 20%.

Including various government stimulus measures, including increasing the minimum wage to 400 baht and free VISA fees for tourists. and the distribution of 10,000 baht digital money in the next phase. The international fund is strong. As a result, money will continue to flow.

while foreign factors Looking at the trend of the Middle East war, it may not intensify. which has the restraint of the parties It may not be able to expand widely. But if there is a wider expansion It will result in the price of energy increasing. Inflation push has not decreased, however. Still expect more accommodative monetary policy. Although US interest rates may remain at 5.5% for a longer period after inflation is higher than expected. But the downward interest rate cycle is likely to begin to be seen during the rest of this year.

sideMiss Lapphon Panakul Director of Secondary Market Products The bond market is expected in the remaining three quarters of this year. There will be a side-way down movement due to the expectation that the Bank of Thailand or the National Bank will begin reducing the policy interest rate from the current level of 2.50% down to 2.00-2.25%. Recently, the market expects that the National Bank will begin reducing interest rates. Mid-year and below As for the value of problem bonds at the end of the first quarter of 2024, the total value was approximately 122,271 million baht, accounting for 2.70% of the outstanding value of long-term private sector debt instruments. which is still considered a small proportion For the most part, bonds in the market are still considered a stable and safe option.

Therefore, it is an appropriate investment strategy for the rest of this year. Under market conditions where interest rates tend to decrease, that is, gradually accumulate to buy bonds during periods when interest rates are still high and buy according to investment objectives, that is, if buying to invest and hold until maturity. Can choose long-term bonds or if the customer can accept more risk. You can invest in bonds that don’t have a very high credit rating. to get more returns But if you buy to make a quick profit or for trading, you should choose bonds with a credit rating of A- or higher and with a maturity of no more than 3 years because they are a group that institutional investors like to invest in.

MeanwhileMr. Bamrungphong Chewthanakornkul Senior Director of Investment Department revealed that foreign stock markets face obstacles in reducing interest rates. Recommend gradually accumulating US stocks during the market contraction, focusing on balancing the portfolio between technology groups that benefit from AI and non-tech stocks.