Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS reveals the baht opened at 35.18 baht per dollar. “Weakened slightly” from the previous day’s closing level of 35.13 baht per dollar. Watch out for volatility after the market recognizes Nvidia’s earnings.
Mr. Poon Panichphibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that during the previous night The value of the baht fluctuates and depreciates. (Oscillating in the range of 35.07-35.29 baht per dollar) according to the flow of transactions to buy gold in the contraction period. Including the oil purchase transaction flow. After the price of crude oil began to rise from the support zone, the depreciation of the baht was limited because the overall dollar continued to fluctuate sideways, waiting to recognize new factors. That will affect the views of market players on the Fed interest rate outlook. At the same time, the financial market atmosphere has returned to being more risk-on, causing the dollar to still be in high demand among market players. student
All tech stocks Large stocks in the US stock market (The Magnificent Seven) all rose well, led by Nvidia +2.3%, Microsoft +2.1% amid hopes that Nvidia’s earnings report may be bright, while Microsoft shares will benefit from news of former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman joining the AI team. The rally in large tech stocks has boosted stock indexes. Tech Nasdaq rose +1.13%, while the S&P500 index closed +0.74%.
As for the European stock market, the stoxx600 index increased slightly +0.10%, supported by an increase in energy stocks: Total Energies +1.9%, Shell +1.3% after the price of crude oil continued to increase. However, the European stock market still faces pressure from Concerns about the trend of economic slowdown This causes market players to not dare to take more risks.
On the bond market side Market players’ views on the Fed interest rate outlook There has not yet been a clear change (we suspect that market players are still waiting to keep an eye on important US economic data reports), causing the overall US 10-year bond yield to still fluctuate sideways near the level of 4.45%. In addition, we maintain our view. The original view was that the US 10-year bond yield might have some fluctuation. Until the US economic data report It will cause market players to adjust their view that The Fed may cut interest rates faster. and deeper than expected In order to see a clear continuous decline, market players may wait for the bond yield to increase. In order to gradually buy
On the currency market side The dollar moved to depreciate somewhat. After the atmosphere in the financial market returned to being more open to risk, at the same time, the Japanese yen (JPY) continued to strengthen to its latest level of 148.4 yen per dollar. It has pressured the dollar to weaken since the beginning of this week. Overall, the dollar index (DXY) gradually decreased to near the level of 103.4 points (range 103.3-103.7 points) in terms of the price of gold. Although market players still believe that The Fed has ended its cycle of raising interest rates, but the atmosphere in financial markets has become more open to risk. Including the timing of the upward trend in the 10-year bond yield, the United States also played a part. Players in the market are gradually selling gold to make a profit, putting pressure on the gold price (COMEX gold contract for delivery in December) to shrink down to the support zone around 1,970 dollars per ounce. Before rebounding near the 1,980 dollar per ounce zone again after the dollar continued to move sideways, the US 10-year bond yield had some time to shrink.
For today, there may not be many interesting economic data reports. As a result, market players will be paying attention to the statements of key central bank officials. Both the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), especially the statement from the President of the ECB at 11:00 p.m. local time in Thailand. Recently, market players began to expect that the ECB might reduce interest rates by around -1% in next year and may begin cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year, in addition to statements from central bank officials. Market players will wait and see. Earnings report of a large US tech company like Nvidia (received after the market closed) including the report of the latest Fed meeting (FOMC Meeting Minutes) which will be received in the early morning around 2:00 a.m. on Wednesday.
For the trend of the baht value We maintain the same view that The momentum of the baht’s appreciation may slow down somewhat. And the baht has a chance to fluctuate sideways until the market recognizes additional new factors, especially PMI index reports for the manufacturing and service sectors. of all major economic countries At the end of the week, however, statements from central bank officials from both the BOE and ECB, as well as minutes from the latest Fed meeting, It may have some impact on the financial market.
In addition, we believe that we should be careful of market fluctuations. After market players become aware of Nvidia’s operating results, which may affect the overall financial market atmosphere. If the operating results are worse than expected, it will put pressure on Nvidia shares and other large tech stocks to fall heavily. It may cause the atmosphere in the financial market to become more closed to risk. This will encourage the dollar to rebound and strengthen somewhat.
For the support-resistance zone We are still evaluating that. The main support zone for the baht remains the zone of 35.00 baht per dollar. while the resistance is important It may be in the range of 35.30 baht per dollar. Until the market recognizes new factors
During this period, all assets are still facing high volatility. causing us to maintain the advice that Entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging tools, such as Options, to increase efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risk. And in addition to using the aforementioned tools Choosing to transact in local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making every decision. Looking at the baht today It is expected to be at the level of 35.00-35.30 baht/dollar.