Summary of issues from the BETTER TRADE 2023 event “Kawee Chukitkasem” sees the Thai stock index in the next 5 years reaching 2,000 points, recommending growth stocks that Thailand is attractive about. along with advising investors to understand 3 aspects of market mechanisms: the stock market grows according to profits – profits have their own cycles – get used to investing in the market
Mr. Kawee Chukitkasem, Head of Research and Content, Pie Securities Public Company Limited, revealed at the BETTER TRADE 2023 event, Growth Stock, the ultimate growth stock, that the Thai stock market after Tom Yum Kung 2007 has become more reasonable and effective. This is considered an advantage of the Thai stock market. If you look back in 10 years, you will find that in the long run the stock market will fluctuate according to the company’s net profit. It is viewed that long-term stock prices are related to the net profits of listed companies in the market. and also believe that big companies In Thailand, it is still possible to make increased profits over time. But not as many as before. So don’t be too harsh on the Thai stock market just yet.
“Today there is nothing that makes net profits grow, so today people are trying to make profits by taking higher risks. The market has risks. But everyone is trying to make a little profit. And this is what happened before the subprime crisis,” Mr. Kawee said.
While the volatility of the Thai stock market is seen as normal. Looking back from 1975 until the present, it is found that when the stock market declines, it will eventually rise. From the data, it can be found that the hardest year was the Tom Yum Kung crisis that caused the stock market to decline for 5 consecutive years, which is considered to be at the level. That is the highest that has ever been seen, but after 1998 onwards, it will be found that there has never been a time when stocks fell for more than 2 years in a row. For this year, it is accepted that there is a chance that the stock market will definitely close negative.
“In the past, the stock market has faced many crises. Tom Yum Kung was the hardest hit, with 58 finances closed. People flocked to withdraw money from financial institutions. There are various events. Both circuit breakers Most recently, there was the COVID-10 situation where the market fell, but every crisis has happened no matter what market you are in. Or who will be blamed for causing the crisis, mistakes, negligence, or wars? Interest rates rise and loans turn into huge bad debts. But it appears that in the end the stock market came back anyway. For any reason Including the Thai stock market. For example, during the Tom Yum Kung episode, who would have thought that the Thai stock market had gone up to a high of over 1,789 points and then dropped back down,” Mr. Kawee said.
For the Thai stock market since 1975, the average annual return has been 6.5% excluding dividends, but if dividends are included 9.7% per year, with many companies giving good and consistent returns, such as LH, even though the price isn’t going anywhere. But it also provides high returns by paying dividends of 6-8 baht per share per year, etc.
“In the past, stocks didn’t go anywhere. It’s because we bought the wrong stock. Don’t blame the market, for example, we go buy MORE STARK if we keep buying stocks that keep going. At least we got dividends. Because he doesn’t stop. When a crisis occurs, don’t be afraid. You have to be calm. Every crisis happens. And who has never had a crisis in their life? In the end it passed. The time has passed,” Mr. Kawee said.
Mr. Kawee said that for the US stock market, volatility is normal. But in the end, the average annual return was 8%. Therefore, what I want investors to understand is 1. The stock market grows according to profits. 2.Profit has its cycle. 3. Investors will be discouraged when the economy is bad. The stock market will go down. And it happens every time. Therefore, everyone must get used to investing in the stock market. The only thing you need to look for is to find Growth Stock.
“Growth Stocks in Thailand are admittedly quite difficult to find. Because the Thai economy cannot grow as much as in the past. But you can choose to grow in certain industries,” Mr. Kawee said.
Mr. Kawee said that he sees the Thai stock market today at the level of 1,400 points, but looking in the future, or approximately 5 years, it is expected that the Thai stock market will reach the level of 2,000 points.
“If looking over the next 10 years, assuming the Thai economy grows 2%, inflation 1%, dividends 3%, combined 6%, the Thai stock market should grow 6% per year. That means the Thai stock market should grow up to 2,500 points. So if we just look at the picture, this The Thai stock market is at 1,400 points, but in the next 5 years it will reach 2,000 points, even if today it goes down to 1,200 points,” Mr. Kawee said.
For recommended stocks Focus on selecting industries that Thailand has its own charm, such as logistics, tourism, industries linked to the EV car promotion plan, the National Energy Plan. Including industries in which Thailand is outstanding such as the Tourism Hub, Medical Hub and the Landbridge project will make Thailand a logistics hub by gradually buying when stocks are falling.
Logistics and EV Hub choose WHA , AMATA , KCE and CPALL
Renewable Hub selects BGRIM , GPSC
Tourism Hub chooses AOT, CENTEL and CPN.
Medical Hub chooses BDMS, BH